Lighting Industry Illuminates the Future

The future of the lighting market is characterised by optimism, though uncertainty in the global economy, fluctuating exchange rates, and the impact of inflation and protectionism could temper overall growth in 2025, according to the latest HKTDC survey. Some 710 exhibitors and buyers at the autumn edition of the 2024 HKTDC Hong Kong International Lighting Fair and the Hong Kong International Outdoor and Tech Light Expo took part in the survey in October, with respondents generally optimistic about market prospects.

Outlook remains positive for 2025

While 39% anticipate short‑term sales growth in next 6 to 12 months, 61% predict further growth in the medium term (12‑24 months). In contrast, just 5% expect sales to decline in both periods. In terms of pricing, 27% of the surveyed buyers anticipate a rise in retail prices, while 37% foresee higher sourcing costs. Among surveyed exhibitors, 30% believe their FOB selling prices will increase, but 47% expect rising production or sourcing costs.

Among the greatest potential for growth is the adoption of new technology, cited by 43% of respondents. Other major opportunities include recovering purchasing power from customers (37%), enhancing customers’ purchase experiences (25%), rising demands from emerging markets (25%) and business leads driven from e‑tailing (24%).

Lingering uncertainties

While overall sentiment is positive, risks and uncertainties remain. A significant number of respondents expressed concerns over fluctuations in the global economy (59%). Other potential obstacles include the impact of inflation (47%), fluctuating exchange rates (32%) and growing protectionist measures such as export controls and sanctions (30%).

Emerging markets thrive

In terms of individual market prospects, many expressed a distinct sense of optimism towards emerging markets. Rating markets on a scale from 1 (very unpromising) to 5 (very promising), respondents identified Central Asia as the most promising for growth over the next two years, awarding a score of 4.5, followed by Africa (4.3), the Middle East (4.0) and Latin America and India (both 3.8).

Rise of smart lighting

With regard to product categories, smart lighting and solutions – including lighting devices controlled by WiFi or mobile apparatus – was identified by 32% of respondents as having the highest growth potential in 2025, followed by residential lighting (30%) and LED lighting (28%).

Going omnichannel

Online sales continue to be a crucial distribution channel for the lighting industry, with 48% of respondents reporting online sales activity. Among them, Amazon and Alibaba/AliExpress/1688.com are the most popular platforms (49%), followed by GlobalSources.com (22%), hktdc.com Sourcing (20%) and eBay (18%).